Eight out of the top ten most flood-prone constituencies in England are projected to elect a Reform MP at the next general election, new analysis by Global Witness and Round Our Way shows.

Campaigners say the study highlights the importance of politicians engaging with flood-prone communities on climate adaptation measures like flood defences.  

The study comes after a report from the UK’s independent Climate Change Committee (CCC) warning that the UK is not ‘appropriately prepared’ for climate impacts. The story was featured in The Express and featured in the Macrodose podcast presented by James Meadway.

The data shows that:

• The most flood-prone constituencies in England, according to the percentage of properties at medium or high risk of flooding from rivers and seas, are 1) Boston and Skegness; 2) South Holland the Deepings; 3) Goole and Pocklington; 4) North East Cambridgeshire; 5) Louth and Horncastle; 6) Selby; 7) Runnymede and Webridge; 8) Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes; 9) Doncaster North; 10) Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme
• Out of these constituencies, 8 out of 10 are projected to elect a Reform MP, according to data published this month by More in Common.
• On average, constituencies where Reform UK is projected to win at the next general election have the highest percentage of properties at risk of flooding compared to any other political party.

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Yorkshire: ex-Environment Agency engineer remains angry about 2020 floods near Goole

Dale Penistone, 65, worked for the Environment Agency in Yorkshire for more than 30 years, including as a flood duty officer. His experience with floods informed his decision to choose a particular location in the village of Snaith - near Goole, much of it a high risk area - to move to in 2008, despite knowing that a nearby village was previously badly hit by floods. 

When the River Aire burst its banks in February 2020 it flooded around 100 homes nearby, but Mr Penistone’s house - chosen as it was on higher ground - was unscathed.

He said: “Water poured into some homes so quickly, and rose right up to the ceiling.”

Some Snaith residents escaped in the nick of time but lost everything they owned. It was heartbreaking”.

Five years on, Mr Penistone believes many homes could have been saved: “At the very least, if things had been done differently, residents could have been given time to get some of their belongings out,” he said.

Reflecting on the 2020 floods, he recalled his concern: “to see water flowing over an earthen bank in Snaith at a fair old rate; it shouldn’t have been. I knew something was very wrong. But I also knew the water could be slowed down, as in previous years”. 

Despite raising the alarm in person to EA staff and by phone, he felt his concerns were ignored. 

He said: “Some water could have been diverted, which had been done in previous years, meaning some of the flood could have been controlled. A big part of what went wrong in 2020 was a lack of local knowledge in the incident room, with office staff simply not understanding what was actually happening in the field.”

Despite floods being more frequent and severe now, he said: “there is still a poor level of investment in maintaining defences. It really worries me. I know some structures are a few decades old and are simply shot; they are leaking.”

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Flossie Boyd, Senior Campaigner at Global Witness said:

“The climate crisis is no stranger to millions of us up and down the country. Every year people are experiencing the very real effects of it on homes, farms and towns, with wetter winters, extreme heat waves, and increasingly devastating storms.”

“This data shows that taking climate measures, like flood defences, seriously, could be key to both protecting communities and winning over voters.”

“To pay for it, politicians need to consider higher taxes on big business, like massively wealthy fossil fuel firms.”

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Sofie Jenkinson, Co-Director at Round Our Way, a not-for-profit that supports people affected by the impacts of climate change, said:

“We are all sadly getting used to the erratic weather climate change brings, like heavier downpours that cause our rivers to flood more often. As this research shows, this is a big threat to many of our homes. It is therefore no surprise that polling shows the quiet majority of us want practical action from politicians - like cutting pollution and preventing more floods.

“Given that Reform is hoping to do well in many of the areas this analysis highlights are at high risk of flooding due to the weather extremes that climate change brings, it's odd to see them on TV busy questioning the basic science, which helps no one.”

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The UK is already experiencing more intense levels of rainfall due to climate change. Warmer skies over Britain are holding more moisture, leading to both greater levels of rain and more sudden heavy downpours which can overwhelm drainage systems and lead to flooding.

Latest data from the Met Office UK State of the Climate Report found that 2023 was the seventh wettest year on record since 1836. March, July, October and December 2023 were all top-ten wettest months in the UK monthly rainfall series, the first year this has happened for four separate months. Earlier this year a report by World Weather Attribution estimated that rainfall in the UK during Autumn and Winter 2023/24 was a fifth heavier as a consequence of human-caused climate change.

We know that increasing rainfall and coastal erosion is increasing flood risk to properties across the country. The Environment Agency recently reported that around 6.3 million homes in England currently risk flooding, with an 88% increase in properties at risk from river- and sea- flooding compared to the previous year. 

According to the same report, 1.7 million homes in England will face an increased risk of flooding by 2050 due to climate change.

Reform’s 2024 manifesto called for the scrapping of ‘net zero’ targets and advocated for increased extraction of fossil fuels - climate U-turns that could lead to more extreme weather and flood-risk for many of its target voters. 

Labour has said they are committed to reducing emissions in line with net zero targets for 2050, and recently announced £250 million more on flood defence spending. However, critics say their airport expansion plans and shelving of the climate and nature Bill are inconsistent with the party’s green ambitions. 

The Conservative Party leader, Kemi Badenoch, recently ditched her party’s commitment to reaching Net Zero by 2050. She is reported to have scrapped the target after receiving donations from funders of a climate science denial group. 

The Lib Dems say they want to move the UK’s net zero target forward to 2045, and at the last election promised an uplift in funding for the Environment Agency and Natural England. The Greens have called for a new wealth tax to help fund improvements to the Green Economy, an end to all new oil and gas extraction projects and more action on flood prevention.