With Valentine’s Day looming, chocolate lovers are feeling the pain with the price of the sweet treat climbing faster than Cupid’s arrow. 

Fresh data from the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) uncovered by Round Our Way, a not-for-profit supporting people impacted by climate change in the UK, revealed that the cost of a large chocolate bar is up 14% — a jump attributed in large part to climate change. 

According to new research from Climate Central, soaring temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns in West Africa are wreaking havoc on crops, significantly squeezing global supply and driving up the price of sugar, cocoa and chocolate. 

The story was featured in The Express.

Meanwhile, research by Christian Aid found that, in 2024 alone, human-caused climate change added six weeks’ worth of days above 32°C in 71% of cacao-producing areas across Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria.

This year’s cocoa shortage follows a similar crash in production last year which saw cocoa prices rise 400% to $12,218 a ton after, rising to a new record of $12,605 per ton in December 2024.

With the UK unable to grow cocoa or sugar almost everything we import comes from countries with low climate readiness, i.e. those most at risk from climate impacts with limited capacity to respond to them. 

Smaller chocolate brands are especially hard hit because they lack the resources to absorb surging cocoa costs. Chocolate remains a top gift for Valentine’s Day, yet higher prices mean shoppers may be scaling back. 

UK Chocolatier “massive affected” by changing climate

Simon Dunn, Cheshire Owner of Simon Dunn Chocolates, said: “I have been massively affected by climate change as temperatures rise, because that obviously affects supply chains, quantities, prices. I am now paying three times what I was for chocolate just two years ago.

“Fortunately [my business is] run by just myself and my wife so our overheads are very low, but we have had to increase our own prices which has slowed down sales. This is very risky but inevitable. Most customers understand, though, as they have seen on the news the rising price of chocolate, which has helped”.

Heat stress in west Africa to blame for poor cocoa crops

While inflation and supply chain disruptions have contributed to rising chocolate prices, Climate Central’s latest study underscores the role of human-caused climate change in tightening cocoa supplies:

• Excessive Heat: In Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana — which produce over half of the world’s cocoa — climate change has led to at least three additional weeks above 32°C (89.6°F) each year during the main harvest season (October–March).
• Crop Stress: Temperatures above 32°C can shrivel cocoa pods, hamper photosynthesis, and reduce overall yields.
• Regional Impact: Cameroon and Nigeria have also experienced up to two extra weeks of extreme heat, pushing cocoa trees beyond their comfort zones and diminishing harvests.

Dr. Michelle Young, Lead Writer at Climate Central said: “Climate change is amplifying heat extremes right when cocoa trees need moderate conditions to produce high-quality beans. The knock-on effect is smaller harvests, strained farmer incomes, and steeper prices for chocolate worldwide.”

Why it matters for Valentine’s Day

Chocolatiers and retailers often secure cocoa in advance, but as costs climb, they pass these increases on to consumers. Beyond simple availability and pricing, higher temperatures can affect cocoa bean quality and flavor. Connoisseurs and everyday consumers alike may notice subtle differences in taste if climate pressures persist.

James Morton, Press Officer at the UK  Chocolate Retailers Association, said: “It’s not just about heat. When you add erratic rainfall patterns, mealybug infestations, and illegal mining into the mix, farmers are under enormous pressure. This all funnels down to the price tag on the shelf.”

What it means for shoppers

• More Price Hikes: If temperatures and extreme weather events continue to rise, cocoa shortages are likely to persist, adding further upward pressure on retail chocolate prices.
• Look for Ethical and Sustainable Labels: Buying chocolate certified by Fairtrade, Rainforest Alliance, or other sustainability initiatives can support farmers, fund reforestation, and encourage better agricultural practices.

Meteorologist, Gemma Plumb, UK Weather and Climate Lead at Weather Change said:

“Climate change is making extreme weather events such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall more frequent and intense, and this is having an impact on many parts of the world. In West Africa extreme weather is having a big impact on cocoa production, which in turn is impacting the price of chocolate.”

Sofie Jenkinson, Co-Director of Round Our Way, a non-profit that supports people being impacted by climate change in the UK,  said: 

"Love is priceless but it seems chocolate will set you back an arm and this Valentine's Day with climate change pushing up the price of a sweet treat. The cost of living crisis has robbed us of many of life's luxuries and now, the extreme weather brought on by climate change is driving up chocolate prices too. 

“Treating a loved one shouldn't cost an arm and a leg. We need politicians to back solutions like clean energy so we can tackle climate change, and stop the weather extremes and food price rises from getting worse.”