Valentine’s Day chocolate prices surge due to climate change
February 2024: New analysis by Round Our Way shows cost of Valentine’s chocolates up 21% since 2022. Rising cocoa prices due to extreme weather linked to climate change means chocolate is now almost 9.5 times more expensive than oil weight-for-weight.
This story was featured in The Daily Express.
Chocolate prices are up 21% compared to February 2022 and up 6% compared to February 2023, meaning that a box of Valentine’s Day chocolates that cost £10 in 2022 is now likely to cost just over £12, according to new analysis of data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) by Round Our Way.
Prices have risen largely due to extreme weather impacting crops of the two major ingredients in chocolate: cocoa and sugar. The UK cannot grow its own cocoa and sugar, and almost everything we import comes from countries with low climate readiness, i.e. those most at risk from climate impacts with limited capacity to respond to them.
The Ivory Coast is the UK’s main supplier of cocoa, accounting for 79% of all the beans imported (54 million kilograms worth £116 million) in 2022. In December 2023, both Ivory Coast and Ghana – the two biggest cocoa producers globally – experienced intense rains that decimated cocoa yields, with the wet conditions causing plants to rot with black pod disease.
These unusually wet conditions have been followed by dry weather in February 2024 due to El Niño – a natural climate phenomenon with a warming effect – which traditionally brings drought to West Africa, which also hurts cocoa yields as the plants need humidity to thrive. Farmers have gone from having too much water to not enough, all under the extreme heat that is resulting from the interaction of climate change with El Niño. This means a shorter production year with lower yields.
In January, confectionary giant Mondelez – that owns brands including Cadburys, Oreo and Toblerone – said that it will raise the prices of some of its products due to increased input costs.
Cocoa prices have been rising steadily for months, with the price of cocoa rising from around $2,900 per tonne in February 2020 – a peak at the time – to a new all-time high of around $5,900 (approx. £4,700) per tonne at 10:00 on 9 February 2024. Oil was trading at around $82 per barrel (131kg) at this time. With 7.63 barrels per tonne, this means that a tonne of oil cost around $626, making cocoa almost 9.5 times (9.42x) more valuable weight-for-weight.
In 2022, the UK also imported two thirds (66%) of its raw cane sugar (29 million kilograms worth £14 million) directly from countries with low climate readiness. India and Thailand, two of the world’s biggest sugarcane growers, have for example been hit with extreme drought, and in October last year the Indian Government imposed an indefinite export restriction on sugar to try to calm domestic prices. These events have caused sugar prices to surge on global markets.
Roger Harding, Director of Round Our Way, a not-for-profit supporting people impacted by climate change in the UK, said, said:
“If you’re short of money this Valentine's Day, it might be all because the lady loves Milk Tray and cocoa beans hate climate change. The cost of living crisis has robbed us of many of life's luxuries and now, the extreme weather brought on by climate change is driving up chocolate prices too.
“Treating a loved one shouldn't cost an arm and a leg. We need politicians to back solutions like clean energy so we can tackle climate change, and stop the weather extremes and food price rises from getting worse.”
Amber Sawyer, an analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) said,
“Climate change means hotter temperatures and more erratic rainfall. This year, those changes are interacting with the natural climate phenomenon El Niño, which also has a warming effect. The result is highly unstable growing conditions for many commodities globally, including cocoa and sugar. This is only set to worsen as emissions continue to drive ever more extreme climate change, which has the potential to put the availability and affordability of chocolate in jeopardy.”
